dataset · United Kingdom
Shrink-swell hazard potential for Great Britain based on CHESS-SCAPE climate projections, from 2030s to 2070s. (PREMIUM version: 50m resolution)
This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on climate variables from 3 CHESS-SCAPE Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate projections and is named GeoClimate clay shrink-swell CHESS-SCAPE. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing a set of scenarios for projecting future greenhouse gas concentrations and their effects on the climate system. RCP2.6, is the pathway with the lowest
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Licence: ["The copyright of materials derived from the British Geological Survey's work is vested in the Natural Environment Research Council [NERC]. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in an
Evidence quality: 30.5
Listed in data.gov.uk public catalogue API on 2026-10-16; relevance/value screened (haiku).
Metadata checked: 2026-10-14T13:20:00.000Z
What's in it
- Data offered docs-verified
- clay shrink-swell hazard classification: 5 GeoClimate classes (highly unlikely to highly likely)
- Coverage docs-verified
- Great Britain · 2030s to 2070s projections (periods 2025-2035, 2045-2055, 2065-2075); modelled baseline centred on 1996 (1991-2001)
- Resolution docs-verified
- 50 m (PREMIUM version)
- Update frequency docs-verified
- As needed (no fixed schedule)
- Access docs-verified
- PREMIUM version. Copyright vested in NERC/BGS; no reproduction or transmission without prior permission of the copyright holder. Pricing and licence terms not stated in docs.
Useful for
- Use cases llm-inferred
- Screening shrink-swell subsidence risk for foundation and structural design on clay soils in GB · Assessing 2030s-2070s climate-change shrink-swell risk for property and infrastructure projects · Mapping difference-in-classification against the 1990s modelled baseline for risk assessment
- Audience llm-inferred
- geotechnical engineers · civils engineers · environmental consultants · insurers · mortgage lenders · property owners and managers
Limitations
- Constraints llm-inferred
- Reuse restricted by NERC/BGS copyright; permission needed to reproduce or transmit · Supplied at customer's own risk; NERC/BGS gives no warranty on accuracy or suitability · Projections derived from UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 using time shifting and pattern scaling · RCP6.0 not included; only RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 are provided · Baseline is modelled (1990s), not observed · Updated as needed, so no fixed refresh schedule
Evidence
- https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/geoclimate-shrink-swell/
- https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/ef2f789b-58c8-43f6-8370-a1c53d902f7c/shrink-swell-hazard-potential-for-great-britain-based-on-chess-scape-climate-projections-from-2
Check upstream coverage, uncertainty and licence before use. Station observations are not forecasts or design levels.